政府动态奖惩机制下绿色建筑供给侧演化博弈研究

从绿色建筑供给侧角度出发，构建消费者效用函数、开发商利润函数和政府与开发商的演化博弈模型，分析消费者绿色偏好、建筑绿色度、成本等因素对建筑价格、需求和利润的影响以及政府动态奖惩政策下系统的演化稳定策略。结果表明：消费者绿色偏好支付系数和建筑绿色度的增大有利于绿色建筑价格、需求和利润的提高，但高成本却使需求和利润降低；政府采用静态补贴与静态税收政策时，博弈系统不存在演化稳定策略，采用动态补贴与静态税收、静态补贴与动态税收、动态补贴与动态税收三种政策组合时，系统存在演化稳定策略；动态补贴与静态税收的政策组合在推动绿色建筑发展方面优于其他政策；开发商开发绿色建筑的概率与补贴上限值呈负相关，与税收上限值呈正相关。     

Credit access,macroprudential rules and policy interventions: Lessons for potential first time buyers

Given the increased popularity of macroprudential measures in the aftermath of the great financial crisis (GFC), a key policy question to arise in certain mortgage markets is whether a significant access to credit issue exists amongst prospective homeowners because of these new policies. In this paper we assess whether such a problem arises in the context of the Irish mortgage market – a market particularly adversely impacted by the GFC. We use a microsimulation model to estimate the level of latent credit demand that could be serviced by the market given prudent credit risk assessment and the current macroprudential regulations. We then compare this demand to current market provision to explore whether a credit gap exists. Finally, we simulate how a public mortgage credit scheme or equity “help-to-buy” type instrument may help credit access. We find both instruments to be effective but would lead to somewhat higher house prices.     

京津冀文化消费的影响因素与结构特征

在京津冀协同发展战略中,文化创意产业在取得初步发展成果的同时,还依旧面临着不少亟待解决的问题。采用问卷调查法实地走访采集区域居民文化消费数据,并进一步通过决策树算法进行数据挖掘,发现京津冀文化消费的影响因素及结构特征,据此提出打造区域共同文化品牌、保障居民收入持续平稳增长、针对青少年文化消费市场创新营销模式、培养其正确的文化价值观及文化创新能力等改进措施,从而优化推动京津冀文化消费市场协同发展的路径,打造互联互通、开放统一的区域文化消费市场,使区域居民文化消费需求成为促进文化产品供给的市场新动力。     

Who becomes an online activist and why: Understanding the publics in politicized consumer activism

This study draws attention to the emerging phenomenon of politicized consumer activism and uses public segmentation to identify the publics involved. The unique characteristics of politicized consumer activism (i.e., consumers acting for political rather than economic reasons and being driven by a political stance rather than morality or identity) render it distinct from other frameworks, such as self-interest-motivated consumer activism, political consumer activism, and consumer nationalism. To shed light on the participants involved in politicized consumer activism, the present study includes a public segmentation analysis of a case in a Chinese context. Building on the situational theory of publics (STP), this study incorporates three objective resources—economic, social, and cultural capital—as segmenting criteria. Data were collected by sending out self-administered questionnaires, resulting in 450 valid and complete questionnaires. A two-step cluster analysis identified three segments: the inactive unprivileged group (cluster 1), the moderate elites (cluster 2), and the active middle class (cluster 3). The degree of activism was lowest in cluster 1 and highest in cluster 3. The sociological significance of segmenting publics and the manifestation of the characteristics of politicized consumer activism through the segments are discussed.     

The red and the black: China’s social credit experiment as a total test environment

China's social credit system is an unusually explicit case where technology is used by multiple actors to turn human behavior into a test object on behalf of the state's goal of modifying the larger social environment, making it an intriguing setting for thinking about the new sociology of testing. This article considers how China's search for a usable “credit” score to both allocate financial resources and explicitly measure a citizen's trustworthiness creates an emergent experimental system of governance similar to, yet not quite captured by, the kinds of experimental processes observed in literature on the platform as a form of market-based governance. As a site where “seeing like a state” and “seeing like a market” converge, the social credit system is a vantage point for observing the changing relationship between moral and economic domains in an era of digital platforms. The article highlights the experimental quality of the system and its emerging system of governance structured around reward and punishment and argues that strategic ambiguity, institutionalized through the affordances of digital platforms, is an important part of the design of this large-scale social experiment.     

探析我国出口信用证结算地位弱化的成因及影响

鉴于信用证具有比较强的收汇保障的性能和贸易融资功能，因此也一直是我国出口企业贸易结算的首选，使用率高居90％。但是近年来，其结算的“霸主”地位不断弱化，并由此对我国外贸出口产生了较大的不利影响。本文探讨了其中具体的原因及影响，并辅以对策。     

基于ACC支付模式的供应链金融模型研究

在零售商存在资金不足和顾客需求随机情况下，以报童模型为基础，针对变质品构建了供应链金融问题和ACC支付模式（提前支付Advance、现金支付Cash和信用支付Credit）相结合的零售商订货模型，即零售商与供应商、融资机构合作条件下的模型。研究表明，零售商会随着最优订货批量和最低期望成本的增加和降低趋势，进而调整订货量，从而规避供大于求的风险，最终降低总的期望成本。同时供应商可以适当调整支付比例，让零售商来分担坏账和商品变质风险。     

基于违约鉴别能力组合赋权的小企业信用评级——基于小型工业企业样本数据的实证分析

信用评级是衡量债务违约的可能性,因此评级体系要有违约风险识别能力,能够将违约客户和非违约客户显著地区分开.通过逼近理想点的思路,构建多目标规划模型求解最优的组合权重,并对中国某区域性商业银行1 814笔小型工业企业贷款进行实证分析.本文的创新与特色一是以非违约企业的数据到正理想点的距离代数和最小为第一个目标函数,以违约企业的数据到负理想点的距离代数和最小为第二个目标函数,构建多目标非线性规划模型进行组合赋权,在满足了“非违约企业的评价得分越高、违约企业的评价得分越低”要求的目标下得到最优的组合赋权的权重系数,使赋权结果保证了评级模型能够将违约企业与非违约企业最大地区分开.改变了现有研究的组合赋权脱离评价目的的弊端,改变了现有研究中违约与非违约企业的评价得分存在大量重叠、对两类企业的区分能力低的弊端.二是通过检验“违约企业的信用得分是否显著小于非违约企业的信用得分”的J-T非参数检验,验证信用评价模型的合理性.改变现有研究忽略对信用评价模型的合理性进行验证的弊端.三是经过实证,发现本研究建立的组合赋权模型的违约鉴别能力(Z=5.546)要高于现有研究的两种常用组合赋权模型、即基于方差最大的组合赋权(Z=4.298)和基于偏差最小的组合赋权(Z=5.182)     

Over‐indebtedness and microcredit in Cambodia: Moving beyond borrower‐centric frames

Over the past two decades, Cambodia has experienced an unprecedented credit boom, a growth in lending so rapid that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) referred to it as “one of the fastest financial deepening episodes by historical cross‐cultural standards” (IMF, 2016, p. 4). This deepening has been driven by the expansion of microcredit. In tandem, over‐indebtedness has increased among microcredit borrowers, and debt has become a significant political and economic concern. This article explores how over‐indebtedness is understood and explained by stakeholders across microcredit value chains. To do so, we draw on interviews with microfinance institution (MFI) executives, investors, branch managers, partners, financial literacy trainers, loan officers and borrowers in Siem Reap and Phnom Penh. We find that across the sector, dominant framings of over‐indebtedness privilege borrower‐centric explanations, while discounting the structural drivers of excessive lending and borrowing. As a consequence, current efforts to limit over‐indebtedness are unlikely to produce the kinds of solutions that are most needed to reduce the debt stress among borrowers. These arguments have implications across the Global South, particularly for contexts where microfinance is rapidly expanding.     

基于修正UTAUT模型的农信社手机银行使用行为研究——以福建省农户调查数据为例

基于UTAUT模型,引入感知风险、替代软件等2个变量进行修正,构建农信社手机银行使用行为影响因素研究模型,并运用结构方程模型、Bootstrap中介检验、多群组分析等方法对福建省农户调查数据进行实证分析。研究发现:(1)感知易用性显著正向影响农信社手机银行使用意愿;感知风险和替代软件显著负向影响农信社手机银行使用意愿;社会影响对农信社手机银行使用意愿影响不显著。(2)便利条件和使用意愿显著正向影响农信社手机银行使用行为;农信社手机银行使用行为影响因素由大到小依次为便利条件、替代软件、感知风险、感知易用性。(3)教育在感知易用性对农信社手机银行使用意愿影响中具有调节作用。据此提出,应进一步增强操作的便利性以优化业务办理效率,增强信息的安全性以降低软件使用风险,增强软件的特色性以降低软件可替代性,增强软件的易用性以优化便捷使用体验,从而优化农村金融服务供给,助推农村经济发展。